The Croke Report blog

FTSE 7-30-2010

admin — Fri, 30 Jul 2010 15:21:41 +0000

Today: The Ftse futures also closed yesterday with the buystalk shut
off, and put in a low at 5240.5, while today we have been only as low as
5245.0 so far. The target is the daily support line which today resides at
5218.0 and does have some upward energy left, so if not outright
support, we should see the index resurface above that point if it does get
under there. On the upside, resistance begins at 5257.0, but the heavy
effect by which the index should struggle to hold up there is at 5269.5 to
5277.5.

NASD 7-30-2010

admin — Fri, 30 Jul 2010 15:21:24 +0000

Today: The Nasd futures had the buystalk shut off yesterday, and tested the
daily support line at 1846.00, and “buoyed” back above there before the close.
Today the daily support line is at 1846.50, and the line still has some upward
energy so it should be “buoy” support again through today’s session. Yesterday’s
low was 1038.50, if below there the index may try to break free from the line and
go lower, but once momentum slows there, it should still try to fight back
upwards. The 200 day MA is back in play here also for the index, which cuts
across at 1848.25 today in the futures.

S&P 500 7-30-2010

admin — Fri, 30 Jul 2010 15:21:12 +0000

Today: The S&P futures have come away now from the 200 day, and are
either going to reload, and make another attempt, or have put in the turn and
are ready to trade lower. The buystalk shut off was at 1096.25, so we closed
still in buystalk, however right after the re-open, it was trading a bit lower and
the stalk shut off. We know then that are sentiment shifts to bearish and the
initial test of the veracity of this turn down comes at the daily support line, which
today is at 1087.50. The technicals are such that it looks like upon first efforts,
that the daily support line will be support, or if futures are able to penetrate, that
the line will act as “buoy” support and most likely will resurface above there
initially. We do have GDP this morning along with PMI, and I believe U of M
confidence numbers, so there is some fundamental action in the mix this
morning, but honestly nothing too earth shattering or enough to change the
wholesale course of action. So this morning 1087.50 is our target, and we want
to be a buyer at that level or if we break through, when the momentum stops,
look for a rise back above that level. A heavy fallout for some reason could
reach as far as 1077.75, the lower support area. On the topside this morning,
resistance begins at 1095.00 through 1097.00, and that area has a “heavy”
effect, so we should struggle to maintain above there initially, leaving us a 10
handle range basically with a 20 handle ATR, so one of those boundaries
should get a test.

Crude Oil 7-29-2010

admin — Thu, 29 Jul 2010 13:56:07 +0000

Today: The Crude oil futures are trading sideways again today in an
uneventful posture. Look for a break out of either 77.74 on the
topside, or a break below 75.90 for the downside action.

Gold 7-29-2010

admin — Thu, 29 Jul 2010 13:55:52 +0000

Today: Gold futures are trading steady this morning in the low 1160’s
again, and are still in sellstalk mode. The price depreciation does seem
to have subsided, and this will bring the sellstalk shut off that much closer
to the surface, however yesterday was unable to even get above the
1165.5 mark, and today started toward there, but has begun once again
to fade lower. This market has concerns and for good reason, because
as we have been saying, it is a crowded boat load of longs in this thing.

Dax 7-29-2010

admin — Thu, 29 Jul 2010 13:55:45 +0000

Today: The Dax futures have technically come out of buystalk mode, even
though they are trading higher on the day after closing in buystalk yesterday.
This means that 6256.0 to 6259.0 will be the main resistance today, and if they
can stretch through there and clear 6264.5, they should then go back into
buystalk mode and have the ability to trade higher from there. In the morning
going forward, use 6234.0 as your pivot, in that we need to get above there to be
in the fight to go higher. On the downside, use 6216.0 as your guide, for if we get
back below that support, we are vulnerable to go lower toward the 6173.5
support. If under 6151.5 then we throw the towel in and turn into a negative
sentiment.

Nasdaq 7-29-2010

admin — Thu, 29 Jul 2010 13:55:34 +0000

Today: The Nasd futures are trading fairly firm overall in buystalk mode, but this
morning the futures are a bit hemmed in here between 1875.00 support and
1879.75, and it may be a bit of a battle to see which direction wins out. Above
1879.75 and they may begin to get some legs and fight to get up toward the
1886.00 resistance. There is a heavy effect though at 1875.00 this morning, and
the futures have to break free or be pulled back under that level though, and if
they were to leak down below 1864.75 then a fresh round of selling begins and
takes them lower.

10 Year Treasury 7-28-2010

admin — Wed, 28 Jul 2010 13:23:50 +0000

Today: The 10 yr. Note futures are trading in a quiet range thus far early this
morning, but are looking like they may want to try to extend a bit lower yet.
The level to watch down here is yesterday’s low of 122.065, and once below
there, that may be where we attract some fresh selling. This move up has
been fairly vertical, so there is always a chance we crack off now and retrace
some of this upward action, though no real signs have come out yet to show
we are ready for that. Note that if we get below 122.065 and begin to slide,
there is potential in a more long term perspective, to go down to 121.00.

Gold 7-28-2010

admin — Wed, 28 Jul 2010 13:23:30 +0000

Today: The Gold futures are in rough shape again as they are down
again today, the sellstalk is back on and they are nearing the 1150.0
mark. This crowded trade is very vulnerable as we have been saying,
and at the moment, have no interest or ability to gain any footing, they
are currently trading at 1161.50, and need to get above 1178.2 to have
the futures on safe ground.

Dax 7-28-2010

admin — Wed, 28 Jul 2010 13:23:21 +0000

Today: The Dax futures are trading in buystalk mode still, however since the
open, they have been trading lower, going the wrong direction for the time being.
We have taken out yesterday’s low of 6187.5, and put in a low of 6170.5 thus far
today. The bystalk condition will remain on for now, but a soft session today into
tomorrow again, and the shut off will get ever closer. Today I would pivot off of
the 6186.0 price level, where if we are above there, then we are on safe ground,
buy below there and the index remains vulnerable.