The S&P futures had a nice pop after the “hurricane hype” from the media sat back, and once again Obama calling for a “historical” storm, cannot get anything right, and it was a storm with a bunch a rain, the world didn’t shudder, and you know what, we are all getting pretty sick and tired of all the nonsense. Why do I say this, some think it is because I try to inject my rhetoric into the discussion, but I do not do that, what I do achieve is giving you the “mood” of what “the” market is, the instruments between the Bonds and the Spoos that show the world what the hell is really going on, not he ankle biting
peons like the ones that come on CNBC off the open. And what I am saying is the adults are about to take over the discussion, because nobody could tolerate the nonsense that goes on day to day now as our president is in full campaign mode, and the networks have a lot of explaining to do to make this guy look as though he was nothing but a big mistake. And I am assuming they will be using every waking moment to do that, that is why we get all this “noise” in our news, like everything being “historical”. So the adults are about to take over, and this means a bullish gig is coming. Today the first
step was made by crossing the daily resistance line down at 1176.50, we need to close above there, and then maintain above there and the down trend will be declared dead. Inside today, the low since Europe opened has been 1185.00, but the main support starts at 1183.75 down to 1180.75, that is the pivot to lower pricing, above 1180.75 and we maintain a bullish tone. There is “buoy” support all along this area now, so it may be tough to stay below 1180, with buoy’s through 1178.00, but that is the challenge area. Above, new highs above 1189 puts us on path to go to 1194.50 initial, but 1196.25 magnet is the target. 1198.50 resistance is the last before the 1200 handle. The charts below show that the question remains, can the European Equities get with this, and how far can the spreads between stretch before we have to capitulate if they do not come up with us.
S&P 500 8-29-2011
August 29th, 2011 by admin No comments »S&P 500 8-25-2011
August 25th, 2011 by admin No comments »The S&P futures are holding up well, they have been as high as 1176.75, within a tick of the daily resistance line at 1177 today, and then backed off a bit. The line is a heavy marker, however it may be penetrated and it will more be the question of do we close above or below that line, and tomorrow, does it come right back, thus giving the “one-timer”, and we resume lower, or consecutive higher closes going forward and the downturn is over. The first level above of consequence is 1183.50 to 1184.00. Above that is the 1186.75 resistance which is the .786 retrace, and may have the juice to turn things back around back under the daily line. If we trade lower, we will be pitched into a buy signal most likely on the first attempt down, mainly at 1169.00, and then 1163.00.
S&P 500 8-24-2011
August 24th, 2011 by admin No comments »The S&P futures in the scheme of things is holding up well in a downward bias environment, and the daily resistance line, the line by which if we can close above and stay above extinguishes the down trend and puts us on a course of “healing”. This morning, after being as high as 1161.75, we have settled back a bit, and now we are heavy basically at 1150 and buoy type support at 1147.00. So in initially we are in a bit of a struggle, however we are favoring the upside yet, even though an overall turn-over and downward resumption may be in the cards. 1170.25 is the .618 retrace back to the high, and 1173.00 is good resistance and just above there is our target of the daily resistance line which resides today at 1175.50. There is not a tremendous bias really looking into the open, but it will be difficult to get below 1147 to 1144 this morning, that area is the stronger buoy, 1161.50 then 1168.00 are the two upside tests.
S&P 500 8-23-2011
August 23rd, 2011 by admin No comments »The S&P futures are above their key pivot today, which resides at 1134.50 today, and below there we are back in sellstalk mode and bearish. However above 1134.50 that condition shuts off and a bullish tone exists until we reach the daily resistance line at 1276 today. This is the test area of whether the downtrend is over or not, by if we close above or below the daily line, that is all a longs ways off yet. This morning though the S&P is on the move higher, and is trying to test the 1145.50 to 1146.50 area, which if bested then releases the futures upward to test the 1150 ceiling we have been experiencing the last few sessions. Closing above the 1134.50 does part the storm clouds for now, however we are in an overall downward flowing trend yet, and it is the magnitude of the bounce that we are after.
S&P 500 8-22-2011
August 22nd, 2011 by admin No comments »The S&P futures are on approach toward the key pivot, and an exit from the downtrend at 1143.50, and sellstalk shuts off and the daily resistance line up at 1185 today becomes the target. Technically however the market favors that this is a pullback, and that we will want to at least once try to roll this thing over again. 1148.50 is the overriding “heavy” line, where the battle to hold or grind higher becomes very difficult. If we begin to fade toward the U.S. open, 1139.50 is the number by which if below a bit of weakness creeps in, pulling us down to the 1134.50 magnet, and thus pivot this morning off the open.
S&P 8-19-2011
August 19th, 2011 by admin No comments »The S&P futures with the help of the European markets have tumbled again overnight and are approaching the ,786 back to the low of 1077.00 set 10 days ago. We made a trip around the bases up to 1200 basically, and now area approaching 1100 again. On the upside, 1135.00 is “safety”, above there and the summer heat is “off” and they can go higher. 1122.00 is an emerging magnet this morning, so that may be a pivot point if we do in fact open around there, but it is really 1122 to 1126 that is the magnet, and no mans land. It is the above or below trade that we are interested in. I
put a series of supports on the way down, it should be noted that other than the 1104.75 retrace level, with a 1103.00 backstop, there is not a lot of other notable levels, and if we are weak it is a look for bounces to fade.
S&P 500 8-18-2011
August 18th, 2011 by admin No comments »The S&P futures came within a couple of handles of its daily resistance line yesterday which we were expecting a turn down, and then the Dax overnight selling has locked that thought in and we are back in our turn down. This morning we
are looking to sell a pullback, and look to play the short side. This area down here from 1167 to 1169.50 is like a
magnet, and it is which side of that we will key off of. If above respect that we have had a fairly steep decline, and we did not originate, so there is a possibility that we can retrace back up a bit before having to sell-off again. The first area is around 1174.00, and then 1182.50. 1186.50 is the upper magnet area for today, that would be what w e would want
to sell in front of, above there and forget the short gig. Under 1167.00 is 1157.25, the .382 back to the 1077 low. It should be noted that the key pivot, the level that confirms we most likely match or take the low out is 1126.50. So expect a “heavy” trade out of the gates, but when the initial smoke clears, we should be below the 1167 level, or be cautious of an obnoxious updraft.
S&P 500 8-15-2011
August 15th, 2011 by admin No comments »The S&P has reached as high as 1187.50 now, off a 1077.00 low, 110 handles lower. We dropped 273 handles basically, thus the .82 back in the futures is 1188.00, and they have respected that level so far, but the 1196.75 upper magnet is already having an effect, and is trying to pull the futures up to that level. It should be noted, that are target is the daily resistance line which today is at 1211.00, however if you look at the chart on top of page 5, the technicals have
such a downward disposition that this push up is most likely going to suffer a failure, and the question will be more do we take out the low or not. 1211 will be heavy the first trip up, that is fairly easy to read, the question is will it get up there. Watch this .382 retracement level at 1188.00. That has to be bested to release us up to the upper magnet at 1196.75 first, if we cannot get on top of 1188, then we are vulnerable for that prevailing downward breeze to catch our sails. At the moment, and the way Europe opened and has been fading, we may be a fade now off these 1187 area highs, down to 1175.75 which would be the first support test, it is possible anyways, in a “I don’t want to miss it” way.
S&P 5008-12-2011
August 12th, 2011 by admin No comments »The S&P has traversed the key pivot on a daily chart at 1154.75, this is where sellstalk shuts off, and implies the downward trending is shelved for right now, and the odds heavily favor that we take a trip to the daily resistance line, which today comes into view up at 1214.50. Keep in mind that the 200 day MA is up at 1280.00, and a trip to 1214.50, though it seems like a long ways away, it really violates nothing as to the spirit of the longer term trend still being down, just a relief rally that will ultimately fail as it approaches 1214.50 in the next couple of sessions. See the chart below. I think this is a feasible expectation because for the last couple of years, that recipe, of buying the sell-off has worked repeatedly, and I sense that just this move yesterday has breathed a lot of encouragement into the setting, however if you look around, the house is still basically on fire, beginning with Europe, Banks, downgrade fall-out we have not even realized yet, an administration that really only “knows” of one path, so I don’t see much relief there. They say the focus is “jobs” out there, that to me is more a campaign statement, it is all about growth, and I am not very confident that the current administration is going to provide a proper setting for that growth. So they say instead they are all about “jobs”, sounds more sympathetic. Unfortunately the jobless guy out there could give a crap about your sympathy, he wants to work. So above 1154.50 there is a chance we work toward the main dividing line of 1179.00 to 1180.50, this is the endzone for one field, and the above there the beginning of the next playing field up to 1196.15.
S&P 500 CME 8-8-2011
August 8th, 2011 by admin No comments »The S&P after the downgrade by S&P news, managed to open near the previous lows, touched off a new low at 1161.50, and then spent the European morning basically “loitering” around the -25 handle area. Of note is that the fixed income has held up well, higher this morning after a downgrade, that is conveying a sense of calmness. The equities, are the “animated” feature, and are weighing things down toward our open. I left the long term buoy up at the top of the
number list, though we are almost at that threshold of breaking that connection. If today’s session ends up being what looks like a low, going into tomorrow, then we are eligible for a rise. The Osama news was the top of our move up in the equities, and possibly the “downgrade” is going to mark the low of the move. That would require the low to be today or early in tomorrow’s session, if instead we show we cannot hold rallies, and we are trending lower, then all of that scenario goes out the window. This morning use 1171.50 as a pivot, however the upside is where the resistance will try to overwhelm, it begins at 1176.00 and builds through 1181.50. On the downside 1168.50 is the first support, but there is not a dominant support if these things have a mind to continue trending lower.
